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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cameco’s third-quarter earnings per share is pegged at 23 cents. It indicates a significant improvement from the prior-year quarter’s loss of one cent per share. Over the past 60 days, the estimate has moved up 4.55%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Cameco’s Earnings Surprise History
Over the trailing four quarters, Cameco’s earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate twice and surpassed the same twice. CCJ has an average trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 22.01%. The trend is shown in the chart below.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What the Zacks Model Unveils for CCJ
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Cameco this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for Cameco is 0.00%.
Factors Likely to Have Shaped Cameco’s Q3 Performance
CCJ holds a 69.8% stake in the McArthur River mine and 83% in the Key Lake mill, which is considered the world's largest high-grade uranium mine and mill. Cameco has a 54.5% interest in Cigar Lake, the world’s highest-grade uranium mine. During its second-quarter results, Cameco had stated that it expects its share of uranium production from Cigar Lake to be 9.8 million pounds for 2025, and from the McArthur River mine at 12.6 million pounds, for a total of 22.4 million pounds.
The company also stated plans to make market purchases of up to 3 million pounds and committed purchases (including Inkai) at 9 million pounds. Cameco’s uranium inventory at the end of the second quarter stood at 7.6 million pounds. CCJ had provided an uranium revenue target of CAD 2.8-3.0 billion for 2025, reflecting year-over-year growth of 8% at the midpoint. This was based on uranium sales of 31-34 million pounds at an average realized price of $87 per pound.
Cameco has delivered 15.6 million pounds of uranium in the first half of 2025. In August, Cameco revised its 2025 production outlook from the McArthur River mine. Due to development delays in transitioning the mine to new mining areas and slower-than-anticipated ground freezing, CCJ expects 9.8–10.5 million pounds of uranium from the mine while maintaining 9.8 million pounds from Cigar Lake. This suggests a share of combined production at 19.6-20.3 million pounds for 2025.
The company, however, did not make any changes to its previous delivery and revenue targets. To achieve the target, CCJ’s share of production should be 9-9.7 million pounds in the back half of 2025 (or 4.5-4.85 million pounds in each quarter), which seems achievable. However, with the annual maintenance outage at Cigar Lake scheduled in the third quarter, we expect a slight impact on its production. Despite this, we expect the third-quarter production to be higher than the 4.3 million pounds produced in the third quarter of 2024. Even if production comes in lower than expected, backed by its inventory and market purchases, Cameco is likely to meet its delivery targets.
Fuel services (which include UF6 conversion, UO2 and heavy water reactor fuel bundles) production for 2025 is expected to be in the band of 13-14 million kgU. The company had produced 13.5 million kgU in 2024. Production volume in the third quarter of 2024 was 3.2 kgU and sales volume was 3.5 kgU. We expect the third-quarter 2025 numbers to be higher than these levels and likely to have positively influenced CCJ’s second-quarter performance. Cameco’s third-quarter revenues are likely to reflect the benefit of fixed-price contracts on the portfolio. However, uranium purchases made to fulfil its delivery commitments are likely to have somewhat offset this.
Notably, uranium prices averaged around $71 per pound in July and gradually gained steam through the quarter, ending at around $82.6 per pound in September. The company has been lowering its debt levels, which is likely to have led to lower interest expenses, thereby boosting earnings. It has been progressing to lower administration, exploration and operating costs, which is likely to have provided a boost to earnings.
Cameco had raised its share of adjusted EBITDA from Westinghouse to be $525-$580 million for 2025 (previously $355-$405 million). This is tied to Westinghouse’s participation in the construction project for two nuclear reactors at the Dukovany power plant in the Czech Republic. This is expected to aid Cameco’s third-quarter results as well.
CCJ’s Price Performance & Valuation
Cameco shares have appreciated 98.9% so far this year, outpacing the industry’s return of 29.8%. In comparison, the Zacks Basic Materials sector and the S&P 500 have gained 8.3% and 15.2%, respectively. Meanwhile, the company’s peer Energy Fuels (UUUU - Free Report) has surged 299.8% while Uranium Energy (UEC - Free Report) has gained 126.2%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Cameco stock is trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 17.97 compared with the industry’s 1.45.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The company is, however, cheaper than peer Energy Fuels’ and Uranium Energy’s price-to-sales ratios of 39.91 and 83.19, respectively.
Investment Thesis on Cameco
The nuclear power sector is experiencing a strong upswing, driven by global events, the urgency of energy security and a surge in low-carbon energy demand resulting from the climate crisis. Cameco is uniquely positioned to capitalize on this boom, thanks to its high-quality, low-cost asset base and its strategic involvement across the entire nuclear fuel supply chain. CCJ continues to invest in increasing production and capitalizing on market opportunities. Work is underway to extend the mine life at Cigar Lake to 2036. Cameco is also increasing production at McArthur River and Key Lake from 18 million pounds to its licensed annual capacity of 25 million pounds (100% basis).
Should You Buy CCJ Stock Now?
Cameco is likely to deliver improved results in the third quarter, supported by higher sales volumes and contributions from the Fuel Services segment and Westinghouse. However, an earnings beat seems unlikely in the quarter. New investors can wait for a better entry point, considering the premium valuation and the lowered production outlook for 2025.
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Should You Buy, Sell or Hold CCJ Stock Before Q3 Earnings Release?
Key Takeaways
Cameco Corporation (CCJ - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2025 results on Nov. 5, before the opening bell.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cameco’s third-quarter earnings per share is pegged at 23 cents. It indicates a significant improvement from the prior-year quarter’s loss of one cent per share. Over the past 60 days, the estimate has moved up 4.55%.
Cameco’s Earnings Surprise History
Over the trailing four quarters, Cameco’s earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate twice and surpassed the same twice. CCJ has an average trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 22.01%. The trend is shown in the chart below.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What the Zacks Model Unveils for CCJ
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Cameco this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for Cameco is 0.00%.
Zacks Rank: CCJ currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Factors Likely to Have Shaped Cameco’s Q3 Performance
CCJ holds a 69.8% stake in the McArthur River mine and 83% in the Key Lake mill, which is considered the world's largest high-grade uranium mine and mill. Cameco has a 54.5% interest in Cigar Lake, the world’s highest-grade uranium mine. During its second-quarter results, Cameco had stated that it expects its share of uranium production from Cigar Lake to be 9.8 million pounds for 2025, and from the McArthur River mine at 12.6 million pounds, for a total of 22.4 million pounds.
The company also stated plans to make market purchases of up to 3 million pounds and committed purchases (including Inkai) at 9 million pounds. Cameco’s uranium inventory at the end of the second quarter stood at 7.6 million pounds. CCJ had provided an uranium revenue target of CAD 2.8-3.0 billion for 2025, reflecting year-over-year growth of 8% at the midpoint. This was based on uranium sales of 31-34 million pounds at an average realized price of $87 per pound.
Cameco has delivered 15.6 million pounds of uranium in the first half of 2025. In August, Cameco revised its 2025 production outlook from the McArthur River mine. Due to development delays in transitioning the mine to new mining areas and slower-than-anticipated ground freezing, CCJ expects 9.8–10.5 million pounds of uranium from the mine while maintaining 9.8 million pounds from Cigar Lake. This suggests a share of combined production at 19.6-20.3 million pounds for 2025.
The company, however, did not make any changes to its previous delivery and revenue targets. To achieve the target, CCJ’s share of production should be 9-9.7 million pounds in the back half of 2025 (or 4.5-4.85 million pounds in each quarter), which seems achievable. However, with the annual maintenance outage at Cigar Lake scheduled in the third quarter, we expect a slight impact on its production. Despite this, we expect the third-quarter production to be higher than the 4.3 million pounds produced in the third quarter of 2024. Even if production comes in lower than expected, backed by its inventory and market purchases, Cameco is likely to meet its delivery targets.
Fuel services (which include UF6 conversion, UO2 and heavy water reactor fuel bundles) production for 2025 is expected to be in the band of 13-14 million kgU. The company had produced 13.5 million kgU in 2024. Production volume in the third quarter of 2024 was 3.2 kgU and sales volume was 3.5 kgU. We expect the third-quarter 2025 numbers to be higher than these levels and likely to have positively influenced CCJ’s second-quarter performance. Cameco’s third-quarter revenues are likely to reflect the benefit of fixed-price contracts on the portfolio. However, uranium purchases made to fulfil its delivery commitments are likely to have somewhat offset this.
Notably, uranium prices averaged around $71 per pound in July and gradually gained steam through the quarter, ending at around $82.6 per pound in September. The company has been lowering its debt levels, which is likely to have led to lower interest expenses, thereby boosting earnings. It has been progressing to lower administration, exploration and operating costs, which is likely to have provided a boost to earnings.
Cameco had raised its share of adjusted EBITDA from Westinghouse to be $525-$580 million for 2025 (previously $355-$405 million). This is tied to Westinghouse’s participation in the construction project for two nuclear reactors at the Dukovany power plant in the Czech Republic. This is expected to aid Cameco’s third-quarter results as well.
CCJ’s Price Performance & Valuation
Cameco shares have appreciated 98.9% so far this year, outpacing the industry’s return of 29.8%. In comparison, the Zacks Basic Materials sector and the S&P 500 have gained 8.3% and 15.2%, respectively. Meanwhile, the company’s peer Energy Fuels (UUUU - Free Report) has surged 299.8% while Uranium Energy (UEC - Free Report) has gained 126.2%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Cameco stock is trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 17.97 compared with the industry’s 1.45.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The company is, however, cheaper than peer Energy Fuels’ and Uranium Energy’s price-to-sales ratios of 39.91 and 83.19, respectively.
Investment Thesis on Cameco
The nuclear power sector is experiencing a strong upswing, driven by global events, the urgency of energy security and a surge in low-carbon energy demand resulting from the climate crisis. Cameco is uniquely positioned to capitalize on this boom, thanks to its high-quality, low-cost asset base and its strategic involvement across the entire nuclear fuel supply chain. CCJ continues to invest in increasing production and capitalizing on market opportunities. Work is underway to extend the mine life at Cigar Lake to 2036. Cameco is also increasing production at McArthur River and Key Lake from 18 million pounds to its licensed annual capacity of 25 million pounds (100% basis).
Should You Buy CCJ Stock Now?
Cameco is likely to deliver improved results in the third quarter, supported by higher sales volumes and contributions from the Fuel Services segment and Westinghouse. However, an earnings beat seems unlikely in the quarter. New investors can wait for a better entry point, considering the premium valuation and the lowered production outlook for 2025.